Nigeria’s return to civilian rule in 1999 raised expectations that elections would steadily become more credible with time. More than two decades later, the country has witnessed repeated amendments to its electoral laws, major investments in voting technology, and growing civic awareness. Yet, each election cycle still ends with familiar disputes over rigging, vote buying, result manipulation, and compromised officials.

The 2023 general election, conducted under a newly amended Electoral Act and with the introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, was meant to mark a turning point. Instead, it reignited debate about whether legal reforms alone can guarantee credible elections in a system where enforcement remains weak. Increasingly, analysts argue that Nigeria’s biggest electoral problem is not the absence of laws but the failure to effectively police the process.


A history of reforms with limited impact

Since 1999, Nigeria has amended its electoral framework several times in response to public pressure and observed flaws. The Electoral Act has been revised repeatedly, with the most significant changes coming in 2010 and again in 2022. These reforms strengthened the powers of the Independent National Electoral Commission, introduced electronic accreditation, tightened campaign finance rules, and set clearer timelines for dispute resolution.

According to the Independent National Electoral Commission, the 2022 Electoral Act was designed to curb manipulation and improve transparency, particularly through electronic transmission of results. Civil society groups and election observers initially welcomed the law as one of the most progressive Nigeria had enacted.

However, elections conducted under the revised framework revealed persistent challenges. Reports by domestic observer groups such as Yiaga Africa and the Centre for Democracy and Development noted cases of voter intimidation, ballot box snatching, delayed deployment of materials, and interference at collation centres. Many of these incidents occurred in the presence of security personnel.

This contrast has led analysts to question whether further amendments to the law can address problems that are largely operational and institutional.


The policing gap in Nigeria’s elections

Security agencies, particularly the Nigeria Police Force, play a central role in elections. They are responsible for securing polling units, protecting election officials, escorting sensitive materials, and preventing violence or interference.

Yet election observers and civil society groups have long raised concerns about the conduct of some officers during elections. According to reports by the European Union Election Observation Mission on past Nigerian elections, security personnel have at times failed to intervene when electoral offences occurred or were accused of selectively enforcing the law.

Related News

A senior governance analyst at the Centre for Democracy and Development, who asked not to be named because of ongoing work with security institutions, said the problem is not a lack of rules but weak enforcement culture. According to him, electoral offences persist because perpetrators rarely face consequences. When politicians believe that security agents can be influenced or compromised, the deterrent effect of the law disappears.

This view is echoed by civil society groups that monitor election conduct. They argue that even the best-written electoral laws become ineffective when police officers on duty accept inducements, ignore violations, or take instructions from political actors rather than from the constitution.


Vote buying and result manipulation

One of the most visible problems in recent elections has been vote buying. Despite explicit provisions in the Electoral Act criminalising the practice, it has become increasingly open, with voters sometimes receiving cash or food items near polling units.

INEC officials have repeatedly stated that the commission lacks prosecutorial powers and must rely on security agencies to arrest offenders. However, arrests are rare, and convictions even rarer.

According to a post-election report by the National Democratic Institute, the failure to punish vote buying has normalized the practice and weakened public trust in elections. The report noted that while technology can reduce certain forms of fraud, it cannot replace the need for impartial law enforcement.

Manipulation at collation centres remains another weak point. While BVAS has reduced multiple voting, observers have documented cases where results were altered during manual collation, often in the presence of security personnel who failed to intervene.


Why this matters ahead of future elections

Nigeria’s next general election may still be years away, but preparations effectively begin immediately after the last one ends. Trust in the electoral process is a key factor in voter turnout and political stability. When citizens believe outcomes are predetermined or manipulated, participation drops, and post-election tensions rise.

According to data from INEC, voter turnout has steadily declined since 2011. Analysts link this trend partly to public frustration with the perceived futility of voting.

There is also a broader governance implication. When politicians gain power through questionable processes, accountability weakens. This affects policy delivery, economic confidence, and national cohesion.

A former resident electoral commissioner, speaking at a policy dialogue in Abuja in late 2024, argued that Nigeria’s electoral debate has focused too much on technology and too little on institutions. He noted that countries with credible elections rely heavily on professional, independent policing rather than constant legal amendments.


What could change the equation

Experts say meaningful improvement will require more than another round of legislative reforms. Key areas often mentioned include better training and welfare for police officers deployed for elections, clear sanctions for electoral offences, and independent oversight of security conduct during polls.

Some analysts have also called for the creation of an electoral offences commission, as recommended by several reform panels. Such a body would remove the burden of prosecution from INEC and the regular police structure, allowing for specialized investigation of election-related crimes.

Another emerging idea is the public release of security deployment and accountability frameworks before elections. This, experts say, could improve transparency and make it harder for officers to act outside their mandate.


Looking ahead

Nigeria’s electoral history shows that progress is possible, but uneven. The introduction of biometric accreditation and electronic results transmission has addressed some technical weaknesses. Yet the human factor remains decisive.

As preparations for future elections continue, attention is gradually shifting from legal amendments to enforcement credibility. Without a police force that is visibly neutral, adequately supervised, and insulated from political pressure, even the most carefully drafted laws will struggle to deliver credible outcomes.

The challenge ahead is not just to reform the rulebook, but to ensure those tasked with enforcing it do so without fear or favor. Until that happens, Nigeria’s elections may continue to improve on paper while falling short in practice.