The Eagle Badger Data Analytics survey found President Bola Tinubu's approval rating at 30.2%, down from 37.2% a year earlier.

The African Democratic Congress argues the poll reflects worsening economic conditions reported by 62% of respondents.

The survey found that 47.5% of respondents disapprove of the administration, while only 23.3% said their lives have improved since May 2023.

The figures are already becoming part of the political argument ahead of the 2027 general election cycle.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's approval rating has fallen to 30.2%, according to a survey conducted by Eagle Badger Data Analytics (EBDA), placing fresh political pressure on an administration approaching its fourth year in office.

The poll, cited by the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in a statement released Friday, found that approval had declined from 37.2% recorded a year earlier. The same survey reported that 47.5% of respondents disapprove of the President's performance since he assumed office in May 2023.

The ADC's response was swift and unequivocal. In a statement signed by National Publicity Secretary Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, the opposition party argued that the findings reflect a broader loss of public confidence tied to economic hardship, rising prices, and persistent insecurity.

"For us in the ADC, the significance of this report is clear," Abdullahi said. "A President with only 30 percent approval after three years in office has lost the confidence of the Nigerian people."

The party's argument rests heavily on the survey data.

The most consequential figures in the survey extend beyond the headline approval rating.

According to the data cited by the ADC, 62% of respondents said they are worse off today than when Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. Only 23.3% reported that their lives had improved during the same period. The survey also found that 42.4% described themselves as "much worse off" than they were three years earlier.

Public approval ratings often fluctuate in response to major economic events. The survey suggests respondents are connecting personal economic conditions with their assessment of government performance. The ADC highlighted another finding showing that among respondents who described their circumstances as "much worse," more than 73% disapproved of the President's performance.

While the survey methodology was not detailed in the statement released by the ADC, the figures provide a snapshot of public sentiment at a moment when inflation, currency instability, and cost-of-living pressures remain dominant issues in national discourse.

Food Inflation Remains Central to Public Frustration

Among the statistics emphasized by the opposition party was the reported increase in food prices since May 2023.

According to the survey findings cited by the ADC, food prices have risen by more than 90% during the period under review, while the overall price level has increased by roughly 80%. The party linked those figures to rising transportation costs, higher school fees, increased rents, and declining household purchasing power.

For many households, food inflation has become the most immediate measure of economic performance. Market prices affect consumers directly and frequently. Unlike macroeconomic indicators such as foreign reserves, exchange rate adjustments, or gross domestic product growth, food costs are experienced multiple times each week by ordinary citizens.

"The government continues to celebrate macroeconomic statistics, but Nigerians do not eat statistics," the party stated, arguing that household conditions remain the most relevant benchmark for judging policy outcomes.

The survey findings cited by the ADC also identified insecurity as a major concern among respondents.

According to the party's statement, communities across several regions continue to face threats from bandits, kidnappers, terrorists, and other armed criminal groups. The ADC argued that insecurity has affected farming activity and disrupted livelihoods in rural areas.

The connection between insecurity and economic hardship is not difficult to trace. Reduced agricultural production can contribute to food supply constraints, while attacks on communities create additional burdens for affected families and local economies.

The survey itself did not provide detailed regional breakdowns in the material released publicly. Yet the ADC pointed to insecurity as evidence that dissatisfaction extends beyond economic indicators alone.

One of the more pointed sections of the ADC statement focused on a familiar defense employed by many administrations confronting difficult economic conditions.

The party argued that after three years in office, the Tinubu administration can no longer rely on explanations centered on inherited challenges. Abdullahi stated that responsibility for outcomes now rests with the current government.

Governments frequently argue that structural economic problems predate their tenure. Opposition parties typically counter that voters ultimately judge administrations based on current living conditions rather than historical explanations. The ADC's position is that three years represents sufficient time for voters to evaluate performance on its own merits.

The survey provides data supporting that argument from the opposition's perspective.

The timing of the survey is unlikely to be overlooked by political strategists.

Nigeria's next general election remains more than a year away, yet parties are already positioning themselves around economic performance, living standards, and public confidence. The ADC has clearly chosen to frame the EBDA findings as evidence of widespread dissatisfaction.

We reviewed the figures cited in the ADC statement and found three separate indicators pointing in the same direction: 47.5% disapproval, 62% reporting worse living conditions, and 42.4% describing themselves as much worse off than in May 2023.

At the same time, approval ratings are snapshots rather than predictions. Public opinion can change as economic conditions improve or deteriorate. What the survey establishes is the state of sentiment among respondents at the time the poll was conducted.

Does a 30.2% approval rating mean Tinubu cannot win in 2027?

No. Approval ratings measure current sentiment, not election outcomes. Political conditions, economic performance, opposition alliances, and voter turnout can all change before an election.

Did the survey show more people disapprove than approve?

Yes. According to the figures cited by the ADC, 47.5% disapproved of the administration while 30.2% approved.

Why is the 62% figure important?

Because it measures personal circumstances rather than political preference. According to the survey, 62% of respondents said they are worse off than they were in May 2023.

The next unresolved question is whether future polling will reinforce or contradict these findings as Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 election cycle. No legal challenge to the survey has been announced, no regulatory review is pending before any court, and no deadline has been set for an official response from the Presidency. What remains disputed is the central political question raised by the poll itself: whether the reported decline from 37.2% to 30.2% reflects a temporary reaction to economic hardship or a more durable loss of public confidence.