With Nigeria’s 2027 general elections gradually coming into focus, Hakeem Baba Ahmed, a former Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu, has issued a sharp warning to the ruling All Progressives Congress, arguing that the party risks losing power if it relies on defections, money, and political dominance rather than public support and credible governance.

Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Tuesday, Baba Ahmed said the APC’s growing confidence, driven by a steady influx of defectors from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, masks deeper vulnerabilities. According to him, the ruling party is making dangerous assumptions about electoral success while failing to address public dissatisfaction with its performance.

His comments come amid an unprecedented wave of defections by governors and senior political figures to the APC, a development that has reshaped Nigeria’s political landscape and sparked debate about the health of the country’s multiparty democracy.

A surge of defections reshapes the political map

In recent months, several PDP governors have crossed over to the APC. Those who have defected include Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State, Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, Douye Diri of Bayelsa State, Peter Mbah of Enugu State, and Agbu Kefas of Taraba State. Most recently, Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State also joined the ruling party.

Beyond the governors, APC officials in Kano State have indicated that the defection of the state’s governor could be imminent, further fuelling speculation about the ruling party’s expanding reach ahead of 2027.

The defections are not limited to governors. According to reports, several members of the National Assembly, state legislators, former governors, former ministers, and other influential political actors have also abandoned the PDP for the APC. While many of the defectors cite ideological alignment, internal party disputes, or the desire to work with the federal government as their reasons, critics argue that political survival and re-election prospects are central motivations.

“Defection does not guarantee victory”

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Baba Ahmed dismissed the idea that an accumulation of political heavyweights automatically translates into electoral success. He warned that the APC’s calculations are built on shaky ground.

“Defection does not guarantee APC’s re-election,” he said. “The assumptions and the calculations of the APC are fundamentally flawed. They believe that once they have governors, legislators, and resources, the country is secured. That is a dangerous way to think.”

According to him, the ruling party underestimates the role of voters and overestimates the strength of political structures. He explained that what parties often describe as “structures” are largely financial networks designed to mobilise loyalty and influence votes, rather than genuine grassroots support.

“When people talk about structures, they are essentially talking about money,” Baba Ahmed said. “Money to keep loyalists in place and money to mobilise votes on election day. But elections are not only about structures. Eventually, politicians must face the people.”

Lessons from 2015 and the power of voter sentiment

Drawing on his experience during the 2015 general elections, Baba Ahmed argued that voter sentiment can override elite political calculations. He recalled that the APC’s victory at the time was not driven by defections on the scale seen today, but by widespread public anger against the then ruling PDP.

According to him, former President Muhammadu Buhari’s candidacy succeeded because voters across large parts of the country rejected established political actors and rallied behind a perceived alternative.

“In 2015, we never had anything like this level of defection,” he said. “Yet Buhari secured overwhelming support in the North and significant votes from other parts of the country. People voted against politicians, not because of structures, but because of sentiment.”

The comparison, he suggested, should worry the APC. Unlike in 2015, when the party was an opposition movement capitalising on public frustration, it is now the incumbent, carrying the burden of governance and public expectations.

A party seen as distant from ordinary Nigerians

One of Baba Ahmed’s strongest criticisms was that the APC has become disconnected from everyday Nigerians. He argued that the party’s leadership has underestimated the depth of public dissatisfaction with economic hardship, governance challenges, and living conditions.

“Speaking from the street, I can tell you they have performed poorly,” he said. “They do not command the level of support among ordinary people that they think they have.”

According to Baba Ahmed, the APC is increasingly viewed as a party dominated by elites and officeholders, many of whom assume they are guaranteed to return to power regardless of performance. He warned that this mindset is not only flawed but potentially destabilising.

“If they believe they do not need to convince Nigerians, and that money and politicians alone will buy votes, they are mistaken,” he said, adding that citizens can reach a breaking point and push back against political arrogance.

Credibility of elections remains central

Beyond performance and popularity, Baba Ahmed stressed that the integrity of the electoral process will be a decisive factor in 2027. He said the ruling party’s confidence also rests on the assumption that electoral systems can be controlled or manipulated, an approach he described as risky and short-sighted.

“It is vital that the 2027 elections are free, credible, and transparent,” he said. “No matter how large a party’s political network is, attempts to tamper with the process can backfire.”

He acknowledged ongoing efforts to improve election technology and transmission systems ahead of 2027 but warned that no system is entirely immune to interference. According to him, overconfidence in both political dominance and technological control could provoke public backlash.

Governors, performance, and voter memory

Baba Ahmed also questioned the assumption that defecting governors will automatically deliver votes to the APC. He noted that many governors face serious challenges in their states, ranging from economic difficulties to governance controversies.

“Some of these governors have massive problems in their states,” he said. “They assume that by changing parties, they have secured victory. But voters remember performance.”

He argued that such moves can deepen public resentment, particularly when politicians appear to abandon one party for another without addressing unresolved issues at home.

“They offend the population twice,” Baba Ahmed said. “First, through poor performance. Second, by assuming that wearing a different jersey is enough to defeat their former team.”

Why Baba Ahmed’s warning matters now

As political realignments accelerate ahead of 2027, Baba Ahmed’s remarks highlight a broader concern about Nigeria’s democracy. The concentration of power within a single party, combined with weakening opposition structures, raises questions about accountability, voter choice, and electoral competitiveness.

His warning suggests that the real battleground for the APC may not be within elite political circles, but among voters struggling with economic pressures and governance expectations. How the party responds to these concerns, rather than how many politicians it attracts, may ultimately determine its fate.

Observers will be closely watching whether the APC adjusts its strategy by addressing public grievances, improving communication around its record, and supporting credible electoral reforms. The response of opposition parties, particularly whether they can reorganise and present a compelling alternative, will also shape the political climate.

For voters, the key test will be whether political power translates into improved governance or whether electoral politics continues to revolve around defections and elite negotiations.