Former Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose has said he cautioned Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara against betraying his political benefactor, Nyesom Wike, long before the relationship between both men collapsed into an open power struggle. Fayose revealed that the warning was issued on the day Fubara was sworn into office, a moment he now describes as a missed opportunity to avert the crisis destabilising Rivers State politics.

Speaking on Politics Today on Channels Television, Fayose expressed surprise at how rapidly the once close alliance between Fubara and Wike deteriorated, despite the latter’s decisive role in Fubara’s emergence as governor. According to him, the current standoff underscores how fragile political succession arrangements can be when trust breaks down.

A warning at the inauguration

Fayose explained that he attended Fubara’s swearing-in ceremony and was seated at the high table alongside key political figures. It was there, he said, that he asked Wike for permission to speak to the incoming governor.

“I was on the high table when Governor Fubara was being sworn in. I told Wike that I wanted to speak to Fubara, and I warned him not to turn against you,” Fayose said during the interview.

The former governor noted that he never imagined that the relationship would unravel so completely, given how closely aligned both men appeared at the time. According to him, the warning was based on his own experience navigating power transitions and managing political loyalties.

How the Rivers crisis unfolded

The political crisis in Rivers State has its roots in the aftermath of the 2023 general elections. Nyesom Wike, who governed the oil-rich state for eight years before becoming Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, was widely credited with orchestrating Fubara’s rise to power. Fubara, a former accountant-general of the state, was seen as Wike’s preferred successor and enjoyed the backing of Wike’s extensive political structure.

However, tensions surfaced within months of Fubara’s inauguration, as disagreements emerged over appointments, control of party machinery, and influence within the state legislature. The rift later escalated into a full-blown political confrontation, drawing in lawmakers, party leaders, and federal authorities.

According to reports by Punch, the crisis reached a peak when factions loyal to both men clashed over the leadership of the Rivers State House of Assembly, raising concerns about governance stability and security in the state.

Fayose’s broader political message

Beyond recounting his warning, Fayose used the interview to highlight a recurring pattern in Nigerian politics, where successors and their benefactors fall out soon after power changes hands. He argued that such disputes often stem from unmet expectations and competing interpretations of loyalty.

Fayose, a former chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, suggested that political godfatherism remains a double-edged sword. While it can facilitate smooth transitions, it also carries the risk of prolonged instability if both parties fail to clearly define boundaries.

According to him, the Rivers situation reflects a deeper structural issue within political parties, where informal power arrangements sometimes override institutional norms.

The ongoing conflict has implications that extend beyond Rivers State. As one of Nigeria’s major oil-producing states, Rivers plays a critical role in the national economy. Prolonged political instability could affect investor confidence, policy continuity, and public service delivery.

Meanwhile, analysts note that the crisis is unfolding at a time when the ruling Peoples Democratic Party is struggling to maintain internal cohesion nationally. According to political analyst Jide Ojo, who spoke to Channels Television on a separate programme, unresolved conflicts in strategic states like Rivers could weaken the party’s negotiating strength ahead of future elections.

“There is a national dimension to what is happening in Rivers,” Ojo said. “If the party cannot manage internal disagreements at the state level, it sends a negative signal about its capacity for internal democracy.”

Reactions and political calculations

Reactions to Fayose’s comments have been mixed. Some observers view his remarks as an attempt to position himself as a voice of experience, while others see them as a subtle critique of both Wike and Fubara for allowing personal differences to overshadow governance.

A senior PDP source in Rivers, who spoke to The Guardian on condition of anonymity, said the public exchange of blame has complicated reconciliation efforts. According to the source, back-channel talks have been ongoing, but mutual distrust remains high.

Meanwhile, civil society groups in Rivers have called on all parties to de-escalate tensions. According to the Rivers State Civil Society Coalition, prolonged political conflict risks diverting attention from pressing issues such as unemployment, infrastructure, and environmental challenges linked to oil exploration.

Political watchers say the next phase of the crisis will likely depend on the courts and party leadership. Several legal battles connected to the state assembly and party structure are still pending, and their outcomes could reshape the balance of power.

There is also growing interest in whether national party leaders or respected elders within the PDP will intervene more forcefully. According to reports by Vanguard, mediation efforts have been proposed, though no formal reconciliation meeting has yet been confirmed.

For Fayose, the lesson is already clear. He argued that political loyalty, once broken, is difficult to repair, especially in a highly polarized environment like Rivers State.

Fayose’s revelation that he warned Governor Siminalayi Fubara against falling out with Nyesom Wike adds a personal dimension to a crisis that has already exposed deep fault lines within Rivers State politics. While the warning itself may not change the course of events, it highlights the enduring challenges of political succession and loyalty in Nigeria.

As the standoff continues, the focus now shifts to whether compromise is still possible or whether the conflict will further entrench divisions within the state and beyond. For Rivers residents, the hope remains that political leaders will prioritise stability and governance over prolonged power struggles.