Nigeria’s crude oil production declined slightly in December 2025, reinforcing a pattern of underperformance that has now stretched into a fifth consecutive month below the country’s OPEC allocation. Fresh data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries show that Africa’s largest oil producer pumped an average of 1.422 million barrels per day in December, down from 1.436 million bpd in November.

The figures were published in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report released on Wednesday. They underscore the persistent operational and structural challenges facing Nigeria’s upstream sector, despite regulatory reforms and renewed investment efforts over the past year.

What the Latest OPEC Data Show

According to OPEC, Nigeria last met its assigned production quota in July 2025. Since then, output has remained below target from August through December, raising questions about the country’s ability to quickly ramp up crude supply under the cartel’s framework.

A closer look at quarterly averages highlights a steady decline through 2025. Output averaged 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter, rose marginally to 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter, then fell to 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter. By the final quarter of the year, production had slipped further to an average of about 1.42 million bpd.

Industry analysts say the trend points to enduring constraints rather than short term disruptions. Issues such as pipeline vandalism, oil theft, ageing infrastructure, and periodic shutdowns for maintenance have continued to limit effective capacity, even as authorities step up surveillance and sector reforms.

Direct Data Versus Secondary Estimates

OPEC compiles its production figures using two methods. One is direct communication from member countries, while the other relies on estimates from secondary sources, including independent energy intelligence firms.

Based on direct communication, Nigeria’s output declined in December. However, secondary sources cited in the same report presented a more optimistic picture. According to these estimates, Nigeria produced about 1.5 million bpd in December, representing a 1.35 percent increase from the 1.48 million bpd recorded in November.

The discrepancy reflects long standing differences between official submissions and independent tracking data. Energy economists note that secondary sources often capture short lived production recoveries that may not be sustained throughout the month.

Nigeria Still Leads Africa’s Oil Producers

Despite missing its quota, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s top oil producer in December. OPEC data show that Libya, the continent’s second largest producer, pumped about 1.37 million bpd during the same period.

At the wider OPEC level, crude oil production by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation averaged 42.83 million bpd in December 2025. This represented a month on month decline of 238,000 bpd, according to secondary source data, reflecting the group’s continued efforts to manage supply amid shifting global demand conditions.

Why the Production Slippage Matters

Crude oil remains Nigeria’s single largest source of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue. As a result, sustained underperformance against OPEC quotas has direct implications for public finances, external reserves, and currency stability.

Economists say the timing is particularly sensitive. Nigeria continues to face fiscal pressures and periodic foreign exchange shortages, even as global oil prices remain relatively supportive. Producing below quota limits the country’s ability to fully capitalise on favourable pricing and rebuild buffers.

There is also a strategic dimension. OPEC has signalled a gradual relaxation of supply restrictions in response to global market conditions. Nigeria’s difficulty in meeting its current allocation raises concerns about whether it can take advantage of higher quotas when they become available.

A Lagos based energy analyst, speaking generally on the trend, said Nigeria risks being left behind if production challenges persist. According to him, countries that can quickly scale output tend to gain influence within OPEC discussions, while laggards face reduced leverage.

Domestic Figures Tell a Different Story

Nigerian authorities argue that OPEC figures do not capture the full picture of the country’s oil output. Domestic data that include condensate production paint a stronger performance.

According to a report by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission titled “Crude Oil and Condensate Production 2025,” Nigeria’s combined crude and condensate output averaged about 1.64 million bpd in the first 11 months of 2025.

Condensates are excluded from OPEC quota calculations, which focus strictly on crude oil. This distinction explains much of the gap between OPEC reported figures and domestic production data.

Officials say condensate output has benefited from investments in gas related projects and improved operational stability in some fields. However, analysts caution that condensates, while valuable, do not fully compensate for weaker crude volumes when it comes to OPEC compliance and global market influence.

Background to the Ongoing Challenges

Nigeria’s struggle to consistently meet its OPEC quota is not new. Over the past decade, production has been repeatedly disrupted by security issues in the Niger Delta, oil theft on a large scale, and underinvestment during periods of low oil prices.

Although the Petroleum Industry Act and recent security interventions have helped stabilise output compared with earlier lows, recovery has been uneven. Some pipelines remain vulnerable, while several mature fields require significant capital to maintain or increase production.

The government has pledged to address these issues through tighter monitoring, licensing reforms, and partnerships with private operators. Progress has been recorded in some areas, but the December data suggest that results are yet to translate into sustained quota level production.

Looking ahead, market watchers will be tracking whether Nigeria can reverse the downward trend in the first quarter of 2026. Attention will also focus on updates from the NUPRC and future OPEC reports to see whether the gap between direct communication data and secondary estimates narrows.

Another key issue will be the pace at which upstream reforms attract new investment, particularly in brownfield assets where incremental gains could lift output relatively quickly.

Any improvement in security along key export pipelines could also have an outsized impact on production figures in the months ahead.

Suggested Visual and Data Elements

To enhance reader understanding, editors may consider:

A line chart showing Nigeria’s monthly crude oil production from July to December 2025 against its OPEC quota.

A comparative bar chart of African oil producers, highlighting Nigeria and Libya.

An explainer graphic distinguishing crude oil from condensate and how OPEC quotas are calculated.

Nigeria’s crude oil output of 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 reflects more than a marginal monthly dip. It confirms a sustained struggle to meet OPEC targets at a time when oil revenues remain critical to the country’s economic stability. While domestic data that include condensates offer some reassurance, the challenge for policymakers is to convert reforms and security efforts into durable gains in crude production. How quickly that happens will shape Nigeria’s fiscal outlook and its standing within OPEC in the months ahead