Nigeria’s inflation rate continued its downward trend in November 2025, falling to 14.45 percent and recording its eighth consecutive monthly decline this year, according to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The figure was published on Monday in the NBS Consumer Price Index report. It represents a clear improvement from the 16.05 percent recorded in October and places inflation below the 15 percent benchmark set by President Bola Tinubu.

The sustained slowdown suggests easing price pressures across the economy, although analysts caution that short term price movements still require close monitoring.

Lowest inflation level in five years

According to the NBS, the November reading is the lowest headline inflation rate Nigeria has recorded in five years. Central Bank of Nigeria data shows inflation last traded around similar levels in October 2020, during the COVID 19 period, when headline inflation hovered within the 14 percent range.

On a year on year basis, the statistics agency said headline inflation in November 2025 was 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60 percent recorded in the same month last year.

“This shows that the headline inflation rate on a year on year basis declined in November 2025 when compared to November 2024,” the NBS stated.

However, the agency noted that prices still rose faster on a monthly basis. Month on month inflation stood at 1.22 percent in November, higher than the 0.93 percent recorded in October. This indicates that while inflation is slowing annually, average prices increased more quickly during the month.

Food inflation moderates sharply

Food inflation also showed a significant slowdown. The NBS reported that food inflation stood at 11.08 percent year on year in November 2025. This is 28.85 percentage points lower than the 39.93 percent recorded in November 2024.

According to the agency, the sharp annual drop is largely linked to a change in the base year used for calculating inflation.

On a month on month basis, food inflation rose to 1.13 percent in November, reversing the 0.37 percent decline recorded in October. The increase was driven by higher prices of items such as dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, shelled periwinkle, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, unshelled egusi, oxtail and fresh onions.

The average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending November 2025 stood at 19.68 percent. This was nearly 19 percentage points lower than the 38.67 percent average recorded a year earlier.

State level inflation trends

Food inflation varied widely across states. On a year on year basis, Kogi recorded the highest food inflation at 17.83 percent, followed by Ogun at 16.52 percent and Rivers at 16.11 percent.

By contrast, Imo posted the slowest rise at 3.52 percent, with Katsina at 3.65 percent and Akwa Ibom at 4.52 percent.

Month on month data showed Yobe recording the highest increase in food inflation at 9.52 percent, followed by Katsina and Ondo. Meanwhile, Imo, Nasarawa and Enugu recorded declines during the month.

Policy backdrop and expert views

Nigeria’s inflation rate has been easing steadily since April 2025. According to reports by Punch, economists attribute the trend to tighter monetary conditions, improved supply chains and a gradual stabilisation of the foreign exchange market.

Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria maintained its benchmark interest rate at 27 percent during its meeting on November 25. The decision signalled the apex bank’s cautious stance, as it balances inflation control with the need to support economic growth.

Analysts say the continued decline in inflation could strengthen investor confidence, although they warn that food prices and energy costs remain key risks going into 2026.